Election 2011 means birth of the New Democrat Liberal Party

Some things are becoming clear with a week to go until the May 2, 2011 vote. The most glaring is the mired in the past traditional media analysis predicting the outcome. Like the politicians trying to grab one of those faucets (to be polite) that will lead to a comfortable living and retirement after surviving for six years as an elected party faithful, the media is predicting like it is late 20^th or early 21^st century. There seems little doubt that change is the byword for this Canadian federal election.

Ontario municipal voters reflected desire and in many cases instituted change. Provincial elections over the past couple of years found past administrations depending on traditional party politics rejected by voters. That trend should be a sign the voters want something other than the same old, same old federal politics.

Stephen Harper must have known traditional campaigning was on dangerous ground by using fear tactics to discourage voters from considering a merger or coalition of opposition parties in an effort to claim a majority government.  

Michael Ignatieff for all his scholarly intelligence did not realize the old Liberal party is outdated and issued a red book while offering a red door as opposed to a blue door for voters to consider. Unable and unwilling to promote top to bottom change in the way the Liberal party was considering the future will probably lead to the demise of both Ignatieff and the staid old Liberal party.  

Jack Layton appears to have struck a chord with the electorate as NDP numbers soar ahead in pre-election polls. The surge in social votes confused scribes and analysts trying to predict the vote outcome. Layton’s NDP are likely temporarily benefiting from voter disgust with attack ads, elementary school style bullying tactics and attempts to manipulate voters by other parties. Voters by telling pollsters votes are changing seem likely sending a message for change.

The most likely outcome will be a series of changes. The media will undoubtedly decided  the army of bureau chiefs, senior reporters, pollsters and analysts on payroll can be replaced when election results are far different than the steam of election information offered the viewing public.

Another change will undoubtedly be the several decades old, and in some cases century old,      party system. Whether the Harper Conservatives win a majority or minority of votes change is coming to opposition parties. Canadians will probably witness the merging of a New Liberal Democrat party from the ashes, with the Bloc Quebecois dying a slow political death. The Conservatives must either become a part of the new structure or disappear as changes take hold.

Why would Canada be immune while the entire world is witnessing unexpected and unheralded change? China, India and the developing world are driving change as industrial nation try to diversify and remain affluence in the face of the revolution. Canadian voters recognize the need for planning, research and development while politicians seem to be trying to keep the status quo while holding back that needed change.

It is like reading a good novel that doesn’t divulge the ending until the last chapter is over. That final chapter will be the May 2, 2011 election results.